Market data

With high oil prices, risks of negative affects that come from inflation, and the battered consumer sentiment surrounding the current credit crisis, I ask myself if we are in a Bear Market still? Today's market recap is as follows;
The Dow Jones Transportation Average was in the green today by 51.57 points to close at 5311.45 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, finished up 45.68 points, at 12594.03. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 5.46 points, to end at 2486.70. The S&P 500 was up 0.4%, or 5.49 points, to 1390.84. Crude oil finished up $2.18, or 1.7%, at $131.03 a barrel. The dollar was trading up today, with the Euro trading at $1.5615 and the dollar against the Yen was trading at 104.77 Yen. In the Fixed Income Market, Treasuries fell, The price of the 10-year note was down 24/32, yielding 4.015%.

What is a leader?

What is a leader? "Someone with internal and external strength. Someone who is great in a particular field, stands out from the rest and leads the way." A leader must have strong communication and interpersonal skills, and ability to work in a cross functional environment. A leader must be innovate, take challenges and never stop learning. George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Winston Churchill, and of course, Myself, all fit these descriptions. We all also possess other characteristics that are needed to succeed in life.
Continue reading an article on leadership at IBD.

To be a leader, one must also produce a better service, find a new "thing" that everyone must have or will want or by "doing or making an old thing in a better way".
A few companies, for example, who fit this description, is Apple (AAPL), General Electric (GE) and Goldman Sachs (GS).

Soaring oil prices and declining stocks

The Dow Jones ended down 227 points, falling 1.8% to 12601.19. All 30 of its components finished in the red. The two-day slide (yesterday being down nearly 200) was the Dow's worst in nearly three months. Crude oil futures surged to a fourth straight record, closing above $133 per barrel, as of the time of this post, futures for June delivery are $134+. The price being paid for Oil has increased 39% this year and is more than double its price of this time last year. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.8% (44 points), to 2448.27. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, or 22 points, to end at 1390.71. The S&P is down 5.3% on the year while the Dow is off 5%. In other trading, the dollar dropped .7%, And in the Bond Market, the benchmark 10-year note was off 8/32, yielding 3.810%.

Morning Recap, Stock Market taking a bath in Oil

With Crude Oil surging above $130 a barrel, the Dow Jones is down 80 points and the SPX and Nasdaq are both shedding points as we speak. Boeing is negative 3.7%, Lehman Brothers is currently in the red by more than 4%, which is the case with most of the Financials as well, with Citigroup and Morgan Stanley both down 2.6% and 2.7% respectively.
In the Bonds market and morning trading, The 10-year note is off 9/32, yielding 3.812%.
"The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of six major foreign denominations, was off 0.6%, or 0.41 point, at 72.03."
How far will the Crude record run go? When will credit related worries stop plaguing Wall Street? Can this be the formation of a new problem stirring in the markets? Again I will ask the question, which is $200 first, a barrel of light sweet crude oil or an Apple IPhone?
Official as of 12:00pm, an all time record high for oil has been touched, $132.08 a barrel.

Times of instability and the aggressive Energy Industry

The legends of finance (according to Bloggingstocks, Carl Ichan, T. Boone Pickens and Steven Schwarzman) are confident in the long-term. They are making some big bets -- based on lots of experience and due diligence -- and not listening to the short-term noise. All in all, these are some valuable lessons for investors.
Follow this post for more information at bloggingstocks.com

Largest U.S. Oil Consumer looking for alternate fuels

With fuel prices soaring, the U.S. military, the country's largest single consumer of oil, is turning into an alternative-fuels pioneer.
"The U.S. military consumes 340,000 barrels of oil a day, or 1.5% of all of the oil used in the country. U.S. forces in Iraq alone consume 40,000 barrels of oil a day."
From WSJ.com

Data Rocks the Market

Wholesale prices excluding food and energy rose at the fastest pace in 16 years as oil prices neared $130 Tuesday, fueling concerns that inflation pressures will keep building even as the economy slows.

Core producer prices rose 0.4% in April, the Labor Department said. That was double forecasts. They climbed 3% vs. a year earlier, the most since December 1991.

Feature story from Investor's Business Daily. Continue reading here.

Stocks under pressure with Oil and Inflation data

The S&P 500 snapped a four-day winning streak, ending down 0.9%, or 13.21 points, at 1413.42, off 3.7% on the year. It was led Tuesday by a 2.5% slide in its financial sector. Shares of banks and brokerages came under pressure after a widely followed analyst said that the worst of the credit crisis may be yet to come and that firms would have to take more drastic measures to shore up their balance sheets against further losses.
Other commodities followed crude's lead higher. The broad Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index was up 1.2%, or 2.609 points, at 217.102.The VIX (Options Volatility Index), was also higher Tuesday, up 3.8%, or 0.62 point, at 17.63.
Read more at WSJ

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 11.2% from its early-March lows to May 2, but it's down 1.8% since, including a 1.5% slide today."

Morning Recap

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, as crude oil futures topping $129 fueled concerns that surging commodities prices will further crimp U.S. consumption, while an official signaled the central bank may be done with cutting interest rates to boost the economy.

"The number one concern in everyone's mind is higher oil prices," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer at Oaktree Asset Management. "Investors are questioning whether the rally we've had [over the past two months] is sustainable, with concerns about energy and remaining problems in the financial industry."

Oil surged to a new record of $129.46 a barrel, with bullish calls by investments banks, weakness in the dollar and supply concerns fueling the gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 195 points, or 1.5%, at 12,834, with 27 of its 30 components in the red. Leading blue-chip decliners were financial stocks American Express , AIG , Citigroup , and JP Morgan Chase .

Pressuring financial-related stocks, the vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve signaled the central bank has stopped cutting interest rates for now.

Chevron and Exxon Mobil were among the few rising stocks on the Dow.

The S&P 500 index fell 12 points, or 0.9%, to 1,413, with the consumer discretionary sector, off 1.9%, leading the drop, closely followed by financials, off 1.8%, and technology off 1.5%.

Hewlett-Packard , a blue-chip stock, fell 1% ahead of posting delayed results after the close.

"Techs are considered by many as consumer discretionary," said Oaktree's Pavlik.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 29 points, or 1.2%, to 2,486.

Before the market opened, inflation concerns were fueled by a report showing wholesale prices outside of food and energy rose the most in around 17 years. Core producer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose a higher-than-expected 0.4% in April, or 3% year-on-year -- the fastest rise since late 1991. See full story.

Highlighting woes about U.S. consumers and the economy, Home Depot said its profit dropped 66% and said the housing and home improvement markets remained difficult in the first quarter. "In fact, conditions worsened in many areas of the country," CEO Frank Blake said.-
Read more at Marketwatch.

Fed raises forecast for food prices

The government raised its one-month-old forecast of how much food prices will rise in 2008 by half a percentage point to a range of 4.5% to 5.5%.
WSJ

I will be constructing my new site, wsnewswire.com
It looks as if I will be going hungry for a while, if I want to invest in my new website, which we all know, is not cheap either!

ChartWatchers Newsletter from StockCharts.com

The VIX is designed to measure the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. As fear ramps up, the VIX normally rises indicating that volatility will be picking up as well. A rising VIX is synonomous with a falling equity market. A falling VIX is synonomous with a rising equity market. As the VIX falls too far, complacency becomes an issue. On the flip side, as the VIX skyrockets, fear is elevated and a panic bottom generally forms. When the VIX lost its rising trendline in late March/early April, it was further evidence that the market was going higher. Currently, the VIX has reached a support level. A bounce off of this support level would likely coincide with a drop in the stock market.
From StockCharts

Is it the Financial's weakness or the drop in Oil prices that will have potential to move the markets more this week..

OilandGas

In 2008, the global population will consume 135 million barrels of oil per day.
This demand is expected to increase by approximately 2% each year.
We must be devoted to sustain existing production, plus more.
MPM

A Trader's Dream

Big swings in currency values, "These are great markets -- they are fast-moving, trending markets," says Russell LaScala, head of currency trading at Deutsche Bank in New York. "It's a trader's dream." I see similar "waves of volatility" in the equities markets as well.

Oil, $126 a barrel and climbing

Crude oil for June delivery rallied to a record high of $126.20 a barrel this morning.
Another factor supporting very high oil prices is overall weakness in the U.S. dollar. The greenback fell against other major currencies, with the dollar index dropping 0.4% to 73.14. Oil does have the "momentum" to near $200 a barrel? 24/7 Wall Street reported this morning that OPEC will increase production. (24/7 Wall street link)
MPM

China's PPI for April climbs 8.1%

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China's producer price index climbed 8.1% in April from a year earlier, marking the nineth straight month of gains, led by higher energy and industrial metals prices. A measure that captures gains in fuel, raw material and power climbed 11.8% in April from a year earlier. Among individual components, crude oil prices climbed 37.9%, coal rose 20.9%, ferrous metals were up 24.8% and gasoline climbed 10.8%

Economic Forcasting Survey from WSJ

The global surge in food and energy prices is being driven primarily by fundamental market conditions, rather than an investment bubble, say the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey.
Fifty-one percent of the respondents said demand from China and India was the prime factor in soaring energy prices, and 41% said the demand was the chief contributor to rising food costs. Constraint in supply was cited second most often; 20% blamed supply problems for higher food prices, and 15% for increasing energy prices.
"It's a combination of demand and supply issues," said Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein LP.

-Friday's edition of The Wall Street Journal

Global inflation, a major threat to the world economy

According to John Lipsky, the IMF deputy managing director, “inflation concerns have resurfaced after years of quiescence” due to soaring energy and food prices. Mr Lipsky said global growth was slowing but headline inflation was “accelerating”.

Possibly a double bottom (with a higher low) put in by the Transports in a daily chart...Volume is not quite were I would like it to be on another thought.
The 200 bar moving average is currently resistance to the Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq, now THIS is making me think south..
If your trading June e-mini futures for the S&P 500 index, which is a very clear picture of the market, 1400-1430 is a very important level of resistance.
Who shall win this battle between the Bulls and the Bears?

Crude News,
On the NYMEX, June crude settled up 16 cents, or 0.13%, at $123.69 a barrel. It traded from $121.58 to $123.90 in regular floor-trading hours. It rose further in post-settlement trading to a record $124.57 (an all time high). Wednesday's high was $123.93.

If history was to repeat itself

In 1921, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at a mere 64 points. By the time 1929 came around, (within 8 years), the stock market index gained almost 600% to 381 points. Have you ever wondered, that if within 8 years, leading to the year 2016, the Dow Jones 30 added 600% from the January lows near 11640? This would give us the number of 69,800. History does have a "history" of repeating itself, and this is could very well happen...

What's next from here?

Today is my final undergraduate level final exam:

Class: Eco Capital Markets
Degree: Bachelors in Economics
Time: 3:30pm