Wall Street annually says, Sell in May and Go Away? Research published by Yale Hirsch in the "Trader's Almanac" shows that the market year is broken into two different six-month seasonality periods. From May 1 through October 31 is seasonally unfavorable (Spring to Fall).
However, November 1 through April 30 is seasonally favorable, and the market most often finishes the period higher. (Fall to Spring). Regardless of how the market performs on average, every year is different, and every day is a different day. Does it pay not to become to complacement as of late? Will the selling button be hit, when will the market's next unfavorable season begin?
Looking at a few ETF's, Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Finance (XLF) and Technology (XLK). XLY broke above resistance from its February highs. XLF broke above resistance from the March-April highs. XLK broke above resistance from a five day consolidation. While, these resistance breaks show strength, we should also keep in mind that all three are up substantially since mid April and getting short-term overbought.
QQQQ, SPY and IWM "shook off the post-Fed" decline and rallied to new reaction highs on Friday. Another higher high keeps the short-term uptrend alive! Shall we raise their resistances? For the Bulls, The U.S. Dollar Index surged above 73 last week.
MPM
Sunday, May 4, 2008
Ideas to think about
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