Market data

With high oil prices, risks of negative affects that come from inflation, and the battered consumer sentiment surrounding the current credit crisis, I ask myself if we are in a Bear Market still? Today's market recap is as follows;
The Dow Jones Transportation Average was in the green today by 51.57 points to close at 5311.45 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, finished up 45.68 points, at 12594.03. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 5.46 points, to end at 2486.70. The S&P 500 was up 0.4%, or 5.49 points, to 1390.84. Crude oil finished up $2.18, or 1.7%, at $131.03 a barrel. The dollar was trading up today, with the Euro trading at $1.5615 and the dollar against the Yen was trading at 104.77 Yen. In the Fixed Income Market, Treasuries fell, The price of the 10-year note was down 24/32, yielding 4.015%.

What is a leader?

What is a leader? "Someone with internal and external strength. Someone who is great in a particular field, stands out from the rest and leads the way." A leader must have strong communication and interpersonal skills, and ability to work in a cross functional environment. A leader must be innovate, take challenges and never stop learning. George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Winston Churchill, and of course, Myself, all fit these descriptions. We all also possess other characteristics that are needed to succeed in life.
Continue reading an article on leadership at IBD.

To be a leader, one must also produce a better service, find a new "thing" that everyone must have or will want or by "doing or making an old thing in a better way".
A few companies, for example, who fit this description, is Apple (AAPL), General Electric (GE) and Goldman Sachs (GS).

Soaring oil prices and declining stocks

The Dow Jones ended down 227 points, falling 1.8% to 12601.19. All 30 of its components finished in the red. The two-day slide (yesterday being down nearly 200) was the Dow's worst in nearly three months. Crude oil futures surged to a fourth straight record, closing above $133 per barrel, as of the time of this post, futures for June delivery are $134+. The price being paid for Oil has increased 39% this year and is more than double its price of this time last year. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.8% (44 points), to 2448.27. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, or 22 points, to end at 1390.71. The S&P is down 5.3% on the year while the Dow is off 5%. In other trading, the dollar dropped .7%, And in the Bond Market, the benchmark 10-year note was off 8/32, yielding 3.810%.

Morning Recap, Stock Market taking a bath in Oil

With Crude Oil surging above $130 a barrel, the Dow Jones is down 80 points and the SPX and Nasdaq are both shedding points as we speak. Boeing is negative 3.7%, Lehman Brothers is currently in the red by more than 4%, which is the case with most of the Financials as well, with Citigroup and Morgan Stanley both down 2.6% and 2.7% respectively.
In the Bonds market and morning trading, The 10-year note is off 9/32, yielding 3.812%.
"The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of six major foreign denominations, was off 0.6%, or 0.41 point, at 72.03."
How far will the Crude record run go? When will credit related worries stop plaguing Wall Street? Can this be the formation of a new problem stirring in the markets? Again I will ask the question, which is $200 first, a barrel of light sweet crude oil or an Apple IPhone?
Official as of 12:00pm, an all time record high for oil has been touched, $132.08 a barrel.

Times of instability and the aggressive Energy Industry

The legends of finance (according to Bloggingstocks, Carl Ichan, T. Boone Pickens and Steven Schwarzman) are confident in the long-term. They are making some big bets -- based on lots of experience and due diligence -- and not listening to the short-term noise. All in all, these are some valuable lessons for investors.
Follow this post for more information at bloggingstocks.com

Largest U.S. Oil Consumer looking for alternate fuels

With fuel prices soaring, the U.S. military, the country's largest single consumer of oil, is turning into an alternative-fuels pioneer.
"The U.S. military consumes 340,000 barrels of oil a day, or 1.5% of all of the oil used in the country. U.S. forces in Iraq alone consume 40,000 barrels of oil a day."
From WSJ.com

Data Rocks the Market

Wholesale prices excluding food and energy rose at the fastest pace in 16 years as oil prices neared $130 Tuesday, fueling concerns that inflation pressures will keep building even as the economy slows.

Core producer prices rose 0.4% in April, the Labor Department said. That was double forecasts. They climbed 3% vs. a year earlier, the most since December 1991.

Feature story from Investor's Business Daily. Continue reading here.

Stocks under pressure with Oil and Inflation data

The S&P 500 snapped a four-day winning streak, ending down 0.9%, or 13.21 points, at 1413.42, off 3.7% on the year. It was led Tuesday by a 2.5% slide in its financial sector. Shares of banks and brokerages came under pressure after a widely followed analyst said that the worst of the credit crisis may be yet to come and that firms would have to take more drastic measures to shore up their balance sheets against further losses.
Other commodities followed crude's lead higher. The broad Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index was up 1.2%, or 2.609 points, at 217.102.The VIX (Options Volatility Index), was also higher Tuesday, up 3.8%, or 0.62 point, at 17.63.
Read more at WSJ

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 11.2% from its early-March lows to May 2, but it's down 1.8% since, including a 1.5% slide today."

Morning Recap

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, as crude oil futures topping $129 fueled concerns that surging commodities prices will further crimp U.S. consumption, while an official signaled the central bank may be done with cutting interest rates to boost the economy.

"The number one concern in everyone's mind is higher oil prices," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer at Oaktree Asset Management. "Investors are questioning whether the rally we've had [over the past two months] is sustainable, with concerns about energy and remaining problems in the financial industry."

Oil surged to a new record of $129.46 a barrel, with bullish calls by investments banks, weakness in the dollar and supply concerns fueling the gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 195 points, or 1.5%, at 12,834, with 27 of its 30 components in the red. Leading blue-chip decliners were financial stocks American Express , AIG , Citigroup , and JP Morgan Chase .

Pressuring financial-related stocks, the vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve signaled the central bank has stopped cutting interest rates for now.

Chevron and Exxon Mobil were among the few rising stocks on the Dow.

The S&P 500 index fell 12 points, or 0.9%, to 1,413, with the consumer discretionary sector, off 1.9%, leading the drop, closely followed by financials, off 1.8%, and technology off 1.5%.

Hewlett-Packard , a blue-chip stock, fell 1% ahead of posting delayed results after the close.

"Techs are considered by many as consumer discretionary," said Oaktree's Pavlik.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 29 points, or 1.2%, to 2,486.

Before the market opened, inflation concerns were fueled by a report showing wholesale prices outside of food and energy rose the most in around 17 years. Core producer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose a higher-than-expected 0.4% in April, or 3% year-on-year -- the fastest rise since late 1991. See full story.

Highlighting woes about U.S. consumers and the economy, Home Depot said its profit dropped 66% and said the housing and home improvement markets remained difficult in the first quarter. "In fact, conditions worsened in many areas of the country," CEO Frank Blake said.-
Read more at Marketwatch.

Fed raises forecast for food prices

The government raised its one-month-old forecast of how much food prices will rise in 2008 by half a percentage point to a range of 4.5% to 5.5%.
WSJ

I will be constructing my new site, wsnewswire.com
It looks as if I will be going hungry for a while, if I want to invest in my new website, which we all know, is not cheap either!

ChartWatchers Newsletter from StockCharts.com

The VIX is designed to measure the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. As fear ramps up, the VIX normally rises indicating that volatility will be picking up as well. A rising VIX is synonomous with a falling equity market. A falling VIX is synonomous with a rising equity market. As the VIX falls too far, complacency becomes an issue. On the flip side, as the VIX skyrockets, fear is elevated and a panic bottom generally forms. When the VIX lost its rising trendline in late March/early April, it was further evidence that the market was going higher. Currently, the VIX has reached a support level. A bounce off of this support level would likely coincide with a drop in the stock market.
From StockCharts

Is it the Financial's weakness or the drop in Oil prices that will have potential to move the markets more this week..

OilandGas

In 2008, the global population will consume 135 million barrels of oil per day.
This demand is expected to increase by approximately 2% each year.
We must be devoted to sustain existing production, plus more.
MPM

A Trader's Dream

Big swings in currency values, "These are great markets -- they are fast-moving, trending markets," says Russell LaScala, head of currency trading at Deutsche Bank in New York. "It's a trader's dream." I see similar "waves of volatility" in the equities markets as well.

Oil, $126 a barrel and climbing

Crude oil for June delivery rallied to a record high of $126.20 a barrel this morning.
Another factor supporting very high oil prices is overall weakness in the U.S. dollar. The greenback fell against other major currencies, with the dollar index dropping 0.4% to 73.14. Oil does have the "momentum" to near $200 a barrel? 24/7 Wall Street reported this morning that OPEC will increase production. (24/7 Wall street link)
MPM

China's PPI for April climbs 8.1%

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China's producer price index climbed 8.1% in April from a year earlier, marking the nineth straight month of gains, led by higher energy and industrial metals prices. A measure that captures gains in fuel, raw material and power climbed 11.8% in April from a year earlier. Among individual components, crude oil prices climbed 37.9%, coal rose 20.9%, ferrous metals were up 24.8% and gasoline climbed 10.8%

Economic Forcasting Survey from WSJ

The global surge in food and energy prices is being driven primarily by fundamental market conditions, rather than an investment bubble, say the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey.
Fifty-one percent of the respondents said demand from China and India was the prime factor in soaring energy prices, and 41% said the demand was the chief contributor to rising food costs. Constraint in supply was cited second most often; 20% blamed supply problems for higher food prices, and 15% for increasing energy prices.
"It's a combination of demand and supply issues," said Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein LP.

-Friday's edition of The Wall Street Journal

Global inflation, a major threat to the world economy

According to John Lipsky, the IMF deputy managing director, “inflation concerns have resurfaced after years of quiescence” due to soaring energy and food prices. Mr Lipsky said global growth was slowing but headline inflation was “accelerating”.

Possibly a double bottom (with a higher low) put in by the Transports in a daily chart...Volume is not quite were I would like it to be on another thought.
The 200 bar moving average is currently resistance to the Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq, now THIS is making me think south..
If your trading June e-mini futures for the S&P 500 index, which is a very clear picture of the market, 1400-1430 is a very important level of resistance.
Who shall win this battle between the Bulls and the Bears?

Crude News,
On the NYMEX, June crude settled up 16 cents, or 0.13%, at $123.69 a barrel. It traded from $121.58 to $123.90 in regular floor-trading hours. It rose further in post-settlement trading to a record $124.57 (an all time high). Wednesday's high was $123.93.

If history was to repeat itself

In 1921, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at a mere 64 points. By the time 1929 came around, (within 8 years), the stock market index gained almost 600% to 381 points. Have you ever wondered, that if within 8 years, leading to the year 2016, the Dow Jones 30 added 600% from the January lows near 11640? This would give us the number of 69,800. History does have a "history" of repeating itself, and this is could very well happen...

What's next from here?

Today is my final undergraduate level final exam:

Class: Eco Capital Markets
Degree: Bachelors in Economics
Time: 3:30pm

Is Apple (AAPL) back on track to $200?

I have bolstered about this since $120 to my colleagues and as of late, particularly my brother and his friends, who have turned bullish long before I have, and now, it is time I spread the great word that myself and 24/7 Wall Street believes to be very true.
$200 is inevitable...thanks to the "portable and easy to use computer- IPhone"?

Some Insight..

It is playing on a team that makes the actual end result (win/loss) less important than the means (steps, interactions, circumstances, responses and situations) taking to get there. Of course, we all want to win, but that is not the point I am going to explain. A rational being has the ability to ask himself, am I playing this game to win, or am I trying to win as a mere act conceding from the urge to play?; and out of my competitiveness and will to be better than I was yesterday, it is inevitable that I want to win? Do I want to win because I am so involved with a team, that I simply want to be able to see and experience my teammates' happiness (that will reflect my happiness) as a result of a win. Or do I want to win because I cannot stand the thought of defeat and the repercussions of relationships that follow a loss.
Maybe I want to "lose" because I feel its time to rebuild or restructure something?
It is not when one relies more on himself and his independence, that the win/loss (end) is more important than the means (journey). This independence, self reliance and dictation is needed to be a leader and individual. Rather, it is when one does not trust others, or feels that he is better off than a "team" effort that a win/loss is taken much more seriously than the overall "game" of life.
This being said, overall, one must rely on his own instincts and intellect to commit to the furthering obtainment of experience, knowledge and execution. However, we must admit, without teams and confrontations with individuals, how do we find out who we truly are? This goes back to my thought that, when involved in a team, with the more people, development and planning involved, and the more tasks spread out, the "path taken" is more important than the "restaurant you eat at" and the "moderate amount you eat", is more important than "what you eat".
When applying this to life, be a unique individual, contribute to a team and trust yourself to be able to trust others. Find u r happiness out of your own free acts, which will add to surrounding happiness and better air for all to breathe. It may take a smile from you, to make me see a smile, or perhaps, smile myself. I may need to show you a frown, because I need a uplifted spirit. It is out of my curiosity that I see "what makes you smile", more important than your "smile". When my smile is all you see, do you wonder why? Do you wonder what it takes to make me happy? How about yourself?
Instead of telling others, "smile", I believe we should ask others, "what will it take to make you happy"
Compare to my example of a "game", when you read if our team won or loss. To most just watching (spectators), the win or loss (or outcome/result) is what matters. On the other hand, if you are the one that is actually playing....you can never lose, so a loss can't be a loss, as long as your involved and are able to make lasting impressions on others, that will leave a lasting impression on yourself, you win.

when you leave one place or overcome an obstacle or reach a milestone, do you treat it as an exit?

...or as an Entrance?

Now I ask myself, what's next.........

Foreclosures Rising

-Fannie Mae officials said they expect "severe weakness" in the housing market the rest of the year and warned of increased mortgage defaults and foreclosures.

Those warnings came a day after similar warnings from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. On Monday he told a group at Columbia University that conditions in mortgage markets "remain quite difficult" amid a steep rise in mortgage delinquencies.

Bernanke said about one-quarter of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages are either in foreclosure or are 90 days or more delinquent. Foreclosure proceedings were initiated on around 1.5 million U.S. homes last year, he said. That's up 53% from 2006.

"And the rate of foreclosure starts looks likely to be yet higher in 2008," he said.

Meanwhile, home prices continue to sag. Through February, U.S. home prices were down 14.8% from their July 2006 peak, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of 20 metro areas. Fannie Mae expects national home values to fall 7% to 9% this year.

Article from Investor’s Business Daily

Interesting News

Trading assets can be divided into three levels. From Minyanville, the Level 3 assets (which include real estate, mortgage-backed securities, private equity investments and much more) are the least liquid of the firms' trading assets and therefore are valued using what are called "unobservable inputs." The three magic words that make an asset a Level 3 asset are "no observable inputs." What this means is that not only are they hard to price, but nearly impossible to sell."
Ten companies now have more Level 3 assets than capital. In order they are (as a % of total shareholder equity):
1) Bear Stearns: 313.97% (for example, a bit more than 3x's their equity capital base)
2) Morgan Stanley: 234.88%
3) Merrill Lynch: 225.4%
4) Goldman Sachs: 191.56%
5) Lehman: 171.18%
6) Fannie Mae: 161.48%
7) Northwest Air: 142.02%
8) Citigroup: 125.06%
9) Prudential: 119.36%
10) Hartford: 108.52%

Recap

S&P 500: 1392.57 (-1.82%)
Transports: 5206.58 (-2.97%)
Dow Jones 30: 12810.77(-1.61%)
Nasdaq: 2438.39 (-1.80%)
CRB Index: 420.18 (+0.39%)
1o year yield: (3.850%)
Oil: $123.62/barrel..gain of nearly 10% in 4 trading sessions.

ESM8 (E-mini S&P 500 June 2008): 1395.00 (-25.75 points)

SPY: 139.49 (-1.80%)
QQQQ: 48.00 (-1.90%)
IWM: 71.46 (-1.92%)
AAPL: 182.62 (-2.16%)
POT: 198.05 (-0.33%)
FXE 154.15 (-0.68%)

How much oil is demanded in US per day?

That number lies between 19 and 20 million barrels. Many analysts also say that in order for prices to decline, are a sharp downturn in "global oil demand" or some other sudden flight from commodities among investors. While most signs point toward further increases of oil prices, The Wall Street Journal reports that if oil does head north near $150/barrel, that could mean $4.50 per gallon of gasoline.

While many can worry about the trembling affect of high oil prices, I am glad that my Money has been following smart money into Apple Inc. (AAPL) since $120 per share. News today, Apple is now adopting a more open strategy for selling it's IPhone, by allowing two carriers to offer the device in Italy. This may boost profits, while at the same time, the price of the IPhone could very well be coming down in the near future. (As the investor as I am, when the market tumbles, it tends to bring down some very good stocks with it, when this happens, at times, I see them on sale, and as an even better buy. As long as I know the business they are apart of and truly believe that they are worth what I am willing to pay for, this being said, if Apple Inc's stocks retraces back some, I will recognize this as a buying opportunity because of this companies underlying fundamentals and great news to follow). This leads me to the question, which is going to be cheaper next year, one barrel of oil or an IPhone? Which would you rather pay less than $200 dollars for...

June Oil

(Marketwatch) June crude traded as high as $123.35 a barrel in New York and $123.56 in electronic trading Wednesday -- both fresh record levels for crude futures. A U.S. government report said crude supplies rose a third week, but refinery activity declined. June crude was last up $1.16 at $123+.

'If economic news is good, it means demand is going to rise and if it's bad, it means the Fed could cut interest rates again and send oil higher.'

— Peter Beutel, CameronHanover

For 'June' Gold; Futures closed at $871.20 an ounce, down $6.50 for the session. "The contract saw pressure from strength in the U.S. dollar after having climbed nearly $27 during a three-session winning streak."

Bond prices edged lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note (which moves opposite its price) rose to 3.93 percent from 3.92 percent late Tuesday.

-MPM
when fresh news hits the wire, you can be sure to find it here, only if it's important.
Invest with discipline and trade with persistence, shall we take that extra mile?

Risks Associated With Investing In Bonds

Bonds may expose an investor to one or more of the following risks: (1) interest-rate risk, (2) reinvestment risk, (3) call risk, (4) credit risk, (5) inflation risk, (6) exchange rate risk, (7) liquidity risk, (8) volatility risk, and (9) risk risk.
When pricing a bond, it is necessary to estimate the expected cash flows and determine the appropriate yield at which to discount the expected cash flows.

Example of Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity Using Annual Interest

The present value is the future value process in reverse. We have:

PV = [1/(1+r)^n]

If A = $100, r = 0.09, and n = 8, then: PV=A[1-(1/(1-r)^n] ; 100[1-1/(1.09)^8]

=$100[1-(1/(1.99256)/(0.09)]; $100[1-0.501867/0.09]; $100(5.534811); = $553.48.

From CNN Money

The Energy Department predicts average monthly gasoline prices should peak at $3.73 a gallon in June, an increase of about 11 cents from last month's estimate. Regular-grade gasoline is expected to average $3.52 a gallon in 2008, 71 cents above last year's average.

Diesel fuel prices are projected to average $3.94 per gallon this year, up from $2.88 per gallon in 2007

CNN Money

Would you travel that extra mile?

As I write this, oil is ready to surpass the $122 level. Is this the price that must be paid, "oil"?
Chinese Oil consumption is up an astounding 16.5% in Quarter 1, while US GDP grew .6% in Quarter.
While Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico will not be expanding oil production much further, Oil exporters’ internal oil demand will soon cause supplies of oil on the export market to begin falling. Costs to produce new off shore discoveries will continue to escalate. More demand for oil in Mideast hikes prices while their own domestic oil producers increasingly consume their own oil to fuel their fast growing economies, driving up oil prices. I have just laid some basic framework here for oil prices, consumption and supply, but their are many other factors and influences in Oil prices, feel free to add..
Would you travel the extra mile?

Oil Investor's Business

June crude rose $1.87 to $121.84 a barrel after soaring to $122.73. Strikes and political unrest continued in Nigeria, and Iran dismissed talk of nuke inspections. Higher energy price targets from the Energy Information Administration and a renewed "super-spike" forecast from Goldman Sachs also fueled gains. So did a weaker dollar.
-Investor's Business Daily

Invest with discipline, MPM.

Graham Corp (GHM )

Today's Price: $61.05 (+$5.91)
Volume 308,800
Avg. Daily Volume 101,300....+205% Today

UBS May Cut 8,000 Jobs

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG may cut as many as 8,000 jobs as it grapples with the biggest credit writedowns of any European bank and a 12 billion-franc ($11.4 billion) first-quarter loss.
Switzerland's biggest bank, which had a 3 billion-franc profit a year earlier, is set to spell out plans for layoffs when it reports detailed results tomorrow. The company will probably say it's eliminating between 2,500 and 3,000 jobs in its investment bank, more than 10 percent of the division, two people familiar with the matter said May 2 (Total 83,000 employees overall). Writedowns at the Zurich-based bank after the U.S. subprime mortgage meltdown have swelled to $38 billion over the past three quarters, a result of building a debt securities business at the peak of the market.
-MPM

Fidelity Magellan Fund

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Fidelity Magellan Fund bought financial stocks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., leading to the $39.4 billion fund's biggest monthly gain in five years.

Manager Harry Lange upped his stake in banks and brokerage companies in March by 1.9 percentage points, about $750 million, to 10 percent of the fund, data compiled by Bloomberg show. He bought $408 million in JPMorgan and $190 million in Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America.

Financial stocks reversed six months of declines in April that were caused by the subprime-mortgage crisis. The S&P's 500 Financials Index gained 6.5 percent, including reinvested dividends after dropping 28 percent in the prior 12 months. Magellan, once the largest U.S. fund, matched the index and had its biggest monthly gain since April 2003.

"He's calling the bottom in financials,'' said Jim Lowell, chief strategist at Adviser Investment Management Inc. in Watertown, Massachusetts, whose clients buy Fidelity funds. He's aggressively buying for the first time in a decade.''

Sunday Oil Investor's Business

From IBD,
"One of the glories of a capitalist system is that price signals are allowed to work. When the price for a good rises, that means it's in scarce supply. When the price falls, it's relatively abundant. This signals to users and producers they must change their behavior."

For consumers, higher prices mean finding alternate ways to do with less. For producers, they mean finding ways to produce more. The confluence of these two forces usually results in lower prices to meet equilibrium.

"This is what's happening now with oil." As for oil companies, they're drilling more, "world oil output has jumped by 11%, or 8.5 million barrels a day, since 2002, to 83 million barrels a day."

"Fueled by the high prices, new sources of oil are being discovered. They include the 33-billion-barrel bonanza recently found off Brazil's coast and other huge finds in the Caribbean and Asia.

The U.S. itself has 656 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 112 billion barrels of oil on federal lands alone — there for the taking if only Congress would allow it.

As the American Petroleum Institute recently noted, "an estimated 4,577 (U.S.) oil wells were completed in the first quarter of 2008, up 12%" from last year and the highest rate since 1986. U.S. oil companies are going back to tapped-out wells and pumping oil that wasn't economically recoverable at $25 a barrel but is at $100."

-Monday's Edition of Investor's Business Daily, Editorials and Opinions.

MPM

Ideas to think about

Wall Street annually says, Sell in May and Go Away? Research published by Yale Hirsch in the "Trader's Almanac" shows that the market year is broken into two different six-month seasonality periods. From May 1 through October 31 is seasonally unfavorable (Spring to Fall).
However, November 1 through April 30 is seasonally favorable, and the market most often finishes the period higher. (Fall to Spring). Regardless of how the market performs on average, every year is different, and every day is a different day. Does it pay not to become to complacement as of late? Will the selling button be hit, when will the market's next unfavorable season begin?
Looking at a few ETF's, Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Finance (XLF) and Technology (XLK). XLY broke above resistance from its February highs. XLF broke above resistance from the March-April highs. XLK broke above resistance from a five day consolidation. While, these resistance breaks show strength, we should also keep in mind that all three are up substantially since mid April and getting short-term overbought.
QQQQ, SPY and IWM "shook off the post-Fed" decline and rallied to new reaction highs on Friday. Another higher high keeps the short-term uptrend alive! Shall we raise their resistances? For the Bulls, The U.S. Dollar Index surged above 73 last week.

MPM

Weekend Edition of Oil Investor's Business

"if you're really curious about something, you probably can figure out a good way to test it; try to attain accurate beliefs first and then let your emotions flow from that"

Since March 2003, Shell has risen 71% and BP 63.5%, Analysts estimate that underlying operating costs and capital expenditure across the oil industry are increasing 10 to 20 per cent a year. "BP and Shell trade on prospective price/earnings multiples of just over nine and BP’s prospective dividend yield is 4.5 per cent. Also upgrades could be in the pipeline if analysts start to base forecasts on $100 oil."
-Over the same period the price of US light sweet crude has risen from $30 a barrel to a all time high of $119.93 last month.
Do many see an Increase in Camel Demand? Increase in camel prices? Increase in camel feed and ultimately, what will the camel run on? Long term investments in the camel?
Farmers in the Indian state of Rajasthan are rediscovering the humble camel. Market prices for these “ships of the desert”, which crashed with the growing affordability of motorised transport, are rising again as oil prices soar. “It’s excellent for the camel population if the price of oil continues to go up because demand for camels will also go up,” says Ilse Köhler-Rollefson of the League for Pastoral Peoples and Endogenous Livestock Development. “Two years ago, a camel cost little more than a goat, which is nothing. The price has since trebled. A sturdy male with a life expectancy of 60-80 years now fetches up to Rs40,000 ($973), compared to Rs5,000-Rs10,000 three years ago, according to Hanuwant Singh of the Lokhit Pashu-Palak Sansthan, a non-profit welfare organisation for livestock keepers. Entry-level tractors cost around $4,000.
"Animal-lovers hope that the surge in oil prices will enhance the status of camel-breeders, who resent the lack of respect society has accorded their traditional knowledge, and give the Raika a strong incentive to stop selling female camels for slaughter." The Financial Times

What is your take, has the world has exhausted about half of all crude supplies?

MPM
-Learn something new everyday.

Graham Corporation (GHM)

This morning, Graham Corp (Batavia, NY) announced fourth quarter year-over-year orders increased 32%; $35 millon. Total for year 2008 orders were $107 million. From Investor's Business Daily and James R. Lines, Graham's President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "We had exceptionally strong bookings in the fourth quarter. There was excellent diversity in geography and markets for the large projects booked in the fourth quarter. Significant orders were received from Saudi Arabia, China, Canada and the United States and are for projects ranging from oil refineries, oil sands and petrochemical plants to alternative fuels operations and power generation facilities. We continue to be optimistic about the outlook for the markets and industries that we serve and the long-term strength of our bookings pipeline."Fiscal 2008 revenue is expected to be in the $85 to $86 million range, slightly higher than the upper end of the previously announced $80 to $85 million range. Gross margin is anticipated to be in the high-30% range for fiscal 2008.

From the Press Release; About Graham
With world-renowned engineering expertise in vacuum and heat transfer technology, Graham Corporation is a designer, manufacturer and global supplier of ejectors, pumps, condensers, vacuum systems and heat exchangers. For over 70 years, Graham has built a reputation for top quality, reliable products and high-standards of customer service. The principal markets for Graham's equipment, sold either as components or complete system solutions, are the petrochemical, oil refining and electric power generation industries, including cogeneration and geothermal plants. Graham equipment can also be found in diverse applications, such as metal refining, pulp and paper processing, ship-building, water heating, refrigeration, desalination, food processing, pharmaceuticals, heating, ventilating and air conditioning.
Graham's reach spans the globe. Its equipment is installed in facilities from North and South America to Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East. More information regarding Graham can be found at its website: www.,graham-mfg.com

For Friday, Oil settled up $3.80 to $116.32/barrel.

Jobless rates dropped to 5.0%, down 0.1 from 5.1%, (March's 2 1/2 year high).

MPM

Afternoon Buzz

From Marketwatch
"On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude-oil futures fell $2.13 to $111.33 a barrel.

Advancing sectors on the S&P included financials, up 3.3%, and consumer discretionary, which climbed 3.2%. Declining sectors on the S&P had energy falling 2.6% and materials down 0.6%."
As I depart from school at 2:30 pm on this May 1st for a few days vacation, the Dow Transports are in the green by 178 points, Dow Jones is positive by 186, S&P is green by 21 points (key is it broke through 1405), and the Nasdaq Composite(tech heavy index) is up 60 points. The yield (3.763) on the 10 years Note is green today, following money into "thee stocks". Good day for the Equity Bulls, Good day for the Bears in the Energy market and good day for all to be alive. I need to go to the gas station right now and I by no means am looking forward to that.

If your taking a break from the markets today, here is a good story from the NY Times.

MPM

Gear Maker Graham Corp (GHM)

check it out, Investor's Business Daily likes it.

It's May already? What happens to crude? What will become of the green back?
When will the market break through the blustering resistance of S&P 1405?
MPM

Oil Investor's Business May 1st

Marathon Oil's first-quarter net income increased 2% to $731 million which exceeded analysts' views.
Exxon Mobil came out with earnings this morning, their earnings announcement said profits rose to $10.89 billion, or $2.03 a share (thats 17% increase), with great help from oil being over $100 a barrel for the better part of this first quarter of 2008.
from Marketwatch, "Exxon remains the largest corporation in the world by market cap and yearly profit." As of late, ConocoPhillips earnings rose 17%; Royal Dutch Shell rose about 25% and BP's profit climbed more than 60%..

Morning data from unemployment report:
U.S. initial jobless claims surge 35,000 to 380,000, a 4 year high.

As I depart to go read the wall street journal before I take on the challenge of this final, I will succeed, but I leave you with some market information:
Crude is $113.10 and Gold is near $860 per troy ounce; major indexes are flat, while the Transports are up 5 and bonds are green (yields, which are inversely related to prices, are red), CRB (commodities) Index and the dollar are both down this morning.
MPM

Good statement.

everyonce in a while, go back to this.
short term, for entire market, we need to break 1405 level on the S&P 500 Index.


For now, here is something very interesting for short term bearish outlook.
“Amazing. After the FOMC announcement the Dow moved higher by 170 points and then sold off. Oddly enough, there were no real surprises. The word from the floor was that traders wanted a stronger statement on inflation such as saying that they will not ease for a while. I'm not sure if I buy that. The market normally doesn't like a restrictive Fed. Actually, it almost never wants a restrictive Fed. I think the rally failure was a function of the short term overbought condition and the resistance just above current levels. Also, when the market rallies into a Fed meeting, it normally moves down for a few days afterward regardless of what the Fed action is.”
Statement from Todd Market Forecast.

MPM

send you off now

Iraq generates on average 2.38 million barrels per day, Oil Revenue for 2007 is estimated at around $70 billion...from wsj earlier.

to get off the subject of oil for a bit...lets go to some chart education from IBD, even in Bear Markets, bases and handles can form in chart patterns of "Cup and Handle", and still work out.

Normally, proper bases show a decline of 30% or 35%. In a bear market, bases may be 40% or 50% deep and still work out.

"Remember, leading stocks may correct 1 1/2 to 2 1/2 times more than the major indexes." "In cup-with-handle bases, you may see handles that are much steeper than normal.
The normal depth of a handle is 10% to 15%, yet the pressure brought on by a bear market can make a handle 20% or 30% deep without ruining the pattern."

Keep in mind that what may look like a deep handle may also be a proper base that forms within a much larger pattern from IBD's JUAN CARLOS ARANCIBIA.

Why do I feel that I have not been studying enough for my final that I have in the am.
MPM

Gear Maker Graham Corp (GHM)

From Investor's Business Daily posted tonight under The New America, "Graham supplies gear that goes into building or upgrading oil refineries. There's a lot of that going on these days as refiners scramble to process more sour crude to meet heavy demand." Now, as we all now, Sweet and Light crude is most profitable and easiest to refine, and heavy, sour crude is a lower grade of oil, but it's fueling a "sweet business" for Graham Corp, based in Batavia, NY.

IBD's MARILYN ALVA reports, the price of West Texas sweet crude has soared, U.S. oil refiners have been adding capacity for sour crude."
She goes on to say that GHM "enjoys about 75% market share in the U.S. for its oil-refining products. Earlier this year, three U.S. refineries ordered $9 million in ejector systems from Graham to help process sour crude..."

Fiscal fourth quarter and full-year revenue and earnings have not yet been released. But in a statement in early April, Chief Executive James Lines said to expect $85 million to $86 million in full-year revenue. That compares with $66 million in the earlier year. Industry forecasts say chemical processing upgrades will stay strong through 2011 to 2013, Garner says. And 7.4 million barrels a day of additional refining capacity will come on line by 2012, he said, citing a forecast from OPEC.

"So there's visibility in the cycle for another three to five years before we see weakness," he said. To read more or to follow up on this company, continue onto Investor's Business Daily website, under "New America"...this is most definitely an equity I am going to put on my watch list.

MPM

Market Recap

Overall, S&P posted a gain of 5.9% for month of April, and the Dow ended with a monthly gain of 4.5%.

Todays action included: S&P 500 Index: (-5.43) to settle at 1385.59.

Dow Jones Industrial average: (-11.81) to settle at 12820.13.

Dow Jones Transports: (-41.03) to settle at 5168.13.

Nasdaq Composite: (-13.30) to settle at 2412.80.

Crude Oil: (-1.03) to settle at 113.46.

USD/YEN: Today---103.90; yesterday---104.50

Euro/USD: Today----1.5619; yesterday---1.5565

QQQQ: (-0.39) to close at $47.21.

SPY: (-0.68) to close at $138.40.

IWM: (-0.34) to close at $71.40.

AAPL: (-1.10) to close at $173.95.

POT: (+2.46) to close at $183.95.

Treasurys, (Yields, which are inversely related to prices, were all RED today, means that prices on Treasurys were green today)

2 year Note: 2.266

5 Year Note: 3.020

10 year Note: 3.734

30 Year Bond: 4.477

The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 0.6% for the first quarter of 2008.

MPM

FED decision

-Dow industrials top 13,000 for first time since January
-Crude fell $1.43 to $114.20 a barrel after Fed decision
DECISION: FED cuts key federal funds rate (short term interest rates) by a quarter point (25 basis points) to 2%, lowest since 2004. This is the 7th rate cut in seven months, as a method to stabilize financial markets.

"The FOMC emphasized higher inflationary pressures and downplayed risks to growth, a signal that the committee may leave rates steady at the next meeting."

Can the Blue Chips and the rest of the market hang on to their immense gains? Time will tell.

afternoon update

FTSE has best month in 5 years, London's benchmark index gained 6.8 percent this month..
Bullish signals?

Oil Investor's Business Part III

I am coining a few important terms from IBD, read and take U R mind off of the "spot" or "cash" market right now, after all, with FED decision, it is best to not “anticipate”, don’t be apart of the “knee-jerk” crowd either, but REACT. The answer isn’t as important as the language or to as what you do with the information given to you (you as in everyone).

1. P/E ratio
A valuation ratio of a company's current share price compared to its per-share earnings.
For example, if a company is currently trading at $43 a share and earnings over the last 12 months were $1.95 per share, the P/E ratio for the stock would be 22.05 ($43/$1.95).

EPS is usually from the last four quarters (trailing P/E), but sometimes it can be taken from the estimates of earnings expected in the next four quarters (projected or forward P/E). A third variation uses the sum of the last two actual quarters and the estimates of the next two quarters. Also sometimes known as "price multiple".

A term I personally believe everyone should know;

2. Futures

A financial contract obligating the buyer to purchase an asset (or the seller to sell an asset), such as a physical commodity or a financial instrument, at a predetermined future date and price. Futures contracts detail the quality and quantity of the underlying asset they are standardized to facilitate trading on a futures exchange. Some futures contracts may call for physical delivery of the asset, while others are settled in cash. The futures markets are characterized by the ability to use very high leverage relative to stock markets.

Futures can be used either to hedge or to speculate on the price movement of the underlying asset. For example, a producer of corn could use futures to lock in a certain price and reduce risk (hedge). On the other hand, anybody could speculate on the price movement of corn by going long or short using futures.

Oil Investor's Business Part II

Crude has seen 22 Bull Markets since 1986 (according to Barron's; rally of 20% or more coming after 20% or more decline). The average bull market for oil lasted 242 days and gained on average 68%.
As of late, the current bull run, "is twice as long and twice as strong". Crude has risen 136%+ since Jan 18, 2007 (465 days+).

The average bear market for crude oil lasted 125 days with a drop in prices around 32%. When a decrease in oil prices, it increases disposable income, which is "welcoming" news for discretionary companies, and lifts their stocks on average 10%. When Oil retraces (or when prices drop and crude enters a bear market) other average increases are financials adding 9.5%, transport stocks adding on average 9% and the S&P has gained on average 5.74% in a crude oil bear market.

Energy stocks that have gone up the most during the current oil rally will probably get hit the hardest," say analysts. Some have added as much as 120% to 150% since January 2007.
-Barron's, April 28, 2008.
What if OPEC cuts output, or if there is continued turmoil in Iran, conflict in Nigeria, et al.

My thoughts, Oil prices were below $100 dollars per barrel since the beginning of time, now that is major support for oil bulls. Thanks to the stimulus checks that most shall receive, now we can afford more expensive oil and other commodities.

But, if the FED does stop cutting rates (equities will perhaps already seen the worst..?) after this weeks monetary policy meetings, many think the dollar will strengthen, inflation fears will diminish and investors will take money out of commodities, pop the bubble and turn bullish on stocks..but, as long as India is growing, Russia and Japan demanding and places like China, Chile and Brazil developing, its not as clear as many may think, lets think long term.

As I depart to continue studying for these finals, Crude is below $115, in reaction to inventories data. From IBD this morning, "Nigerian unions restarted talks with Exxon Mobil to end a strike that has shut nearly all the company's output."
Supply and demand.

MPM

Oil Investor's Business

From 24/7 wall street.

-Hess Corporation (NYSE:HES) reported first quarter numbers, and they were predictably big. Earnings more than doubled from a year ago to $759 million on revenues of $10.72 billion, and $2.34 EPS vs. $1.17 a year ago. Analysts estimates averaged $2.02 EPS on revenues of $10.55. Virtually all the increase is attributable to a $32.54/b increase in the company's selling price of oil. Refining and marketing were off $85 million (84%). The company's stock is up more than $3.00 in pre-open trading.

Open: $109.62
High: $111.30
Low: $107.96
P/E:19.06

up $3.32 as of 11:00am

52-Wk High:
04/22:$116.81

Morning News

"I would rather be out, and wishing I was in...
Than in a market, praying I was out." LivewithOscar
"Stops are in, Emotions are out"

FOMC, considering The fed funds rate has already been slashed by 300 basis points since September, will 25 basis points be the end of cutting rates?

From the NY TIMES this morning....Your Health..
Senator and Presidential Hopeful McCain’s health care plan would shift the emphasis from insurance provided by employers to insurance bought by individuals, to foster competition and drive down prices. To do so he is calling for eliminating the tax breaks that currently encourage employers to provide health insurance for their workers, and replacing them with $5,000 tax credits for families to buy their own insurance, continue at NYTIMES.

Energy data:
CRUDE BARREL INVENTORIES, UP 3.8MILLION barrels, to 320 million barrels in the week ending April 25.

Technicals from Todd Harrison of Minyanville.
S&P 500; 1405, (but I think area as of now is like 1386-1397)
Dow transports: 5000; DOW JONES: 12,800; NASDAQ: 12,450; Russell 2000: 735.

MPM

Morning data

As I write, the DOW is 51 points in the green, S&P is up 4 @ 1397 and the NAS is up 7, in part thanks to GOOG and AAPL, each up nicely so far on the day. I do like to follow the Dow Jones Transports, and yet another day, they are in the green 24+points. For the Treasurys, the 2 and 10 year Notes are both up respectively (and their yield, which are inversely related to their prices, are down?) Interesting.

Look overseas, Hang Seng, Nikkei and Taiwan all close in the red, with Shanghai the only leader overnight in China. Gold is at $865+ per troy ounce, which results in the Dollar in the green as of late. According to marketwatch, " Crude for June delivery snapped back following a bout of selling Tuesday, adding 52 cents, or 0.5%, to $116.15", while "June natural gas also was on the rise, up 10 cents to $10.95 per million British thermal units."

This morning GDP surprised at 0.6 percent for the first quarter of this year, exports helped (with appreciation of the exchange rate, the dollar is cheaper). ADP also released reports saying that private payrolls were up 10,000 in April.

Hands up to First Solar for getting through the gates with better than expected earnings and an increased guidance towards full year 2008, which is helping prop up the solar energy stock more than 8% this morning.

According to this morning NYTIMES, "Inflation also remained elevated. Prices rose at a 2.6 percent annual rate on a surge in the cost of oil and food. Excluding food and energy costs, inflation rose at a 2.2 percent annual rate."

All eyes will be on the Fed, which at 2:15 p.m. Eastern time is expected to announce a rate cut of a quarter of a percentage point, to 2%.

I must go study for a Capital Markets final, good luck today all.

S&P 500 Chart
whats your guess of the direction, forecasting is not easy, especially when its about the future...

Recap for Tuesday 4/29/2008

Market Recap

S&P 500 Index: (-5.43) to settle at 1390.94

Dow Jones Industrial average: (-39.81) to settle at 12831.94.

Dow Jones Transports: (+40.17) to settle at 5209.16.

Nasdaq Composite: (+1.70) to settle at 2426.10.

Crude Oil: (-3.30) to settle at 115.63.

USD/YEN: 104.03

Euro/USD: 1.5565

QQQQ: (+0.36) to close at $47.60.

SPY: (-0.55) to close at $139.08.

IWM: (-0.64) to close at $71.74.

AAPL: (+2.81) to close at $175.05.

POT: (-12.01) to close at $181.49.

Treasurys

2 year Note: 2.362

5 Year Note: 3.120

10 year Note: 3.823

30 Year Bond: 4.551

NASDAQ SHORT INTEREST FALLS 0.7% ---Barrons

MPM

Uncertain as to the outcome. Blame the unlucky.

Article from the Economist..."Wither the Derivative."


Another great piece of information from the working paper; No Harm, No Foul: The outcome bias is ethical judgments by: Gino, Moore and Bazerman.

:Two studies investigated the influence of outcome information on ethical judgment. Participants read a series of vignettes describing ethically-questionable behaviors. We manipulated whether those behaviors were followed by a negative or positive consequence. As hypothesized, participants judged behavior as less ethical when it was followed by a negative consequence. In addition, they judged the behavior as more blameworthy and to be punished more harshly. Participants’ ethical judgments mediated their judgments of both blame and punishment. The results of the second experiment showed again that participants rated behavior as less ethical when it led to undesirable consequences, even if they saw that behavior as acceptable before they knew its consequences. Implications for both research and practice are discussed. ...

We show that outcomes of decisions lead people to see the decisions themselves in a different light, and that this effect does not depend on misremembering their prior state of mind. In other words, people will see it as entirely appropriate to allow a decision's outcome to determine their assessment of the decision's quality. ... The tendency demonstrated in our studies might lead people to blame others too harshly for making sensible decisions that have unlucky outcomes. ... Too often, we let ethically-questionable decisions slide for a long time until they result in negative outcomes, even in cases in which such outcomes are easily predictable.

"This makes morality look more like a social convention for who we can blame for what, rather than a direct guide to decision making. "

Technical Indicator from Marketwatch

Inverted Head and shoulder in S&P? Do we test 200MA between 1410-1420 this week, even with FOMC meeting tomorrow?
Michael Ashbaugh seems to think it is possible..marketwatch

Lets hope Dow Jones Industrial Average either way stays above 12750-800.
Regarding the DOW JONES TRANSPORTS AVERAGE...If Fed cuts 25 basis points, believe it or not, a boost to dollar, if they cut more, maybe no respect to the 200MA, as of late, Transports are above the 200MA.

Whats u r profit objective? What will you do if your targets are hit, what will you do if the market moves against you? Either way, volatile sessions may be ahead, if you aren't ready, stay on sidelines, if you are ready, wait, nobody is ever ready, continue to educate yourselves and never stop learning, one can never know to much, and good luck trading/or investing to new, seasoned and professionals, whichever you are.
in the words of Oscar..."stocks are in, emotions are out..."

MPM

Currencies

USD/JPY YEN: some amount of (---) yen buys 1 dollar.
104.20
in this case, 104.20 yen buys 1 dollar, I sense some inflation may be taking place in japan, and not just on our home front.

Euro/USD, Euro: some amount of (---) dollars buys 1 euro.
1.5655
in this case; 1.5655 dollars buys 1 euro; many would like to see the euro/usd exchange rate closer to 1.30, which would mean the dollar would need to appreciate against the euro.
Euro all time high against the dollar is just over 1.60.

USD/CHF; Swiss Franc: some amount of (---) francs buys 1 dollar.
1.0339
in this case, 1.0339 francs buy 1 dollar; the dollar is worth more, but not necessarily more valuable.


European markets closing prices
DAX: -0.58%
CAC: -0.71%
FTSE: -0.02%

this information is as of 1:00 pm eastern time and is not guaranteed, use at U R own risk.

MPM

Recap of Pres. Bush's speech, similar to Mr.Jeffery Sachs

"No quick fix exists for oil prices. Higher prices reflect basic conditions of supply and demand. The world economy – especially China, India, and elsewhere in Asia – has been growing rapidly, leading to a steep increase in global demand for energy, notably for electricity and transport. Yet global supplies of oil, natural gas, and coal cannot easily keep up, even with new discoveries. And, in many places, oil supplies are declining as old oil fields are depleted."

Pres. Bush is open to any ideas of how to handle high gasoline prices, and inflation and Commodity prices through the ROOF... at least Archer Daniels and many other earnings reports that have came out as of late, such as Potash Corp. have made record profit...do we take money supply out of economy, maybe buy domestic assets then in return use MS to purchase foreign assets, maybe increase interest raise rates, depreciate exchange rates, lower prices, increase demand, reduce supply, increase supply? what shall we do? ride our bikes, easy to say for urban residents whole live 1 minutes from their job, what about families, suburban citizens and people such as my friends, who tend to be lazy, all in all, no easy way, I will be studying Monetary Policy very closely, as I have been for many months now, fiscal can only help to get the checks out and increase aggregate demand here on the home front, what about off shores.
We wanted increase in Current Account, therefore, drop the buck and raise exports, while same time, we consume most imports? We haven't even began to visit the sub prime crisis and all other problems that I haven't mentioned because I must run now, really this time...

MPM

S&P...1387---?

as discussed last night, well maybe as I thought last night...S&P 500 is flirting with very important level of 1385-86 right now.
“With house prices falling, wages failing to keep pace with inflation and job worries growing, we suspect that both confidence and spending will remain under downward pressure,” wrote James Knightley from ING, therefore, that level will most likely be breached? I will take SPY's (S&P 500 SPDR ETF) from 137.05-.40 (1374-75 ----S&P) -140.40 (1409.75 ----S&P), by going with trend.

Oil: $116.50/barrel as I type.
(1 barrel = 42 gallons)

good plays long and short, XLF, XLE, QQQQ, SPY, IWM, AAPL...

if your "day" trading, keep that ratio to ideally 3:1, never try to gain 1 point and be willing to lose 3, makes no sense, be on the opposite side of that, profits will develop.

going to get the Journal and study, happy trading and good luck!

NY times from this morning...

-American homes are losing their value at the fastest rate in two decades, according to a closely watched report released on Tuesday.

In the 12 months ended in February, the Case-Shiller home price index, which measures the value of single-family homes in 10 major metropolitan regions, fell 13.6 percent, the worst decline since records began in 1987. A broader 20-city index dropped 12.7 percent.

The slump in home prices was more severe than the worst point of the recession of the 1990s, the last time values fell so far, so quickly.-

The Conference Board says the index fell in April to 62.3, from the revised 65.9 in March and 76.4 in February.

Shall we go further....Pres. Bush is on CNBC right now, so I am out.

I'll bet you 10 Euros

I'll bet you 10 Euros that that Lakers will win at least 10 games this post season..

to hedge against possible loss, I will go long dollar once I see deterioration in the Laker's strategy, but as of late, I am not convinced of this, and Kobe and the Lakers shall make a good run this post season.

As far as I am concerned, the SPX is forming inverted head shoulders, but is the 30year treasury ready for a fall off the right shoulder? The Markets will go up and down, and it will do both, I do know, not one person can effect it, I also know, that following smart money is smart. Lets hope 1385-6 is "REAL" support. Don't Chase the market and don't jump in front of a fast, moving train, go with the trend because it will stay course until an external force changes direction, and right now, so many external forces, this is why I like corn, LOL. I also am not sure about the CRB index right now either, I mean, we all have a potential direction with targets and pivots, but anticipate is only as good as it may seem. One must research, react, have plan B and C "just in case", be quick and have superior vision. Everyday is a New day. I must get back to my international finance studies, as well as continue to follow futures right now. Best wishes.

New Chapter and Bear Market territory, still? Welcome everyone.

Recap:

"Stocks rallied modestly for most of Mon., but gave up gains in the final 40 minutes. The Nasdaq rose 0.1%, but the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Dow dipped 0.2%. Volume fell on both exchanges. M&A activity failed to give the market much of a lift. Several leading stocks lodged gains in solid trade, though farm stocks retreated. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 4 ticks to 3.83%"

"Oil prices jumped to an intraday record of $119.93 a barrel before settling up 23 cents at $118.75. A Scotland refinery strike and militant attacks in Nigeria have forced a cut in global output of nearly 1 mil barrels. Prices also gained as the dollar slipped ahead of the Fed's meeting. U.S. retail gasoline prices have now risen above $3.60 a gallon."

U.S. troops engaged in heavy street battles with Shiite militants, killing at least 45. Amid a sandstorm Sun., militants unleashed rocket and mortar fire on Baghdad's Green Zone and attacked a security checkpoint. Tank-backed U.S. forces struck back, driving deep into the hostile slum to try to secure the area closest to the Green Zone. Mortar attacks killed 3 U.S. soldiers in E. Baghdad."

-Investor's Business Daily

I will be restructuring, or developing for better words this blog into a short term daily and weekly market recap to add information from throughout the day such as, Market data, Currencies (Euro, Yen, USD, CHF, etc..), Bonds, Oil prices and other commodities, as well as much more information. Basically a daily recap, with long term goals of having analyst type newsletter, with information on Apple, POTASH, QQQQ, IWM, and SPY just to name a few. I will include technical and fundamental analysis and I do plan to incorporate overseas data, since we are a "global economy" from other markets such as Hang Seng from Hong Kong, Nikkei 225 from Tokyo, DAX in Germany, FTSE and others.

This blog will also include International Monetary Fund facts, research, articles and information (imf.org), so, we can get a picture on trade and exchange, as well as interpret their forecasts of growth, inflation, output and supply and demand data.

I will be posting other information as it is necessary for all to read. It will range from FOMC meetings, $120 oil, President Bush announcements, Bernankes speeches, quotes from the Times, WSJ, IBD or Financial Times, to name a few...now I just hope that I can get the time, I mean, I do have the time, but now, I am looking for a job, in the Financial sector, and as we all know, it is very tough right now. But, we are only as good as the challenges that we take (Prof James Holmes, Economist, University at Buffalo, told me that and I have never looked back), therefore, let the games begin and we will turn crisis into opportunity.

Did I mention, I am graduating next weekend from college. This is why I guess I am coming back to my blog, I have so many things written down, all over the place, literally my walls, hundreds of books, newspapers, word documents and such, that I think its time to turn hydrocarbons into liquid form, maybe even lite and sweet "crude" if you shall prefer. I want to give back, while stay persistent and motivated to learn, develop and grow each and everyday. A Long will come the new opportunity, and right now, or after graduation, it's time I start trying to sell "Me, Inc." and start a new chapter in my life.

Anyone see Intrepid Potash's initial public offering the other day, 50% in one day...I saw it, told my friends about it the week before and I did clip the article out of Investor's Business Daily the following day to show my kids one day(if I ever have any) that I have made some decent choices in life, LOL.

Maybe all of this doesn't make sense, maybe it will never make sense, I hope all who I will meet in the future, as well as all who I never meet, enjoy this blog and use it to their benefit, as soon I get in rolling with more financial information. Posts will be random, and will include most up to date and informed material, but I assure you, I won't waste a minute of your time because I realize how valuable time is.

MPM