Market data

With high oil prices, risks of negative affects that come from inflation, and the battered consumer sentiment surrounding the current credit crisis, I ask myself if we are in a Bear Market still? Today's market recap is as follows;
The Dow Jones Transportation Average was in the green today by 51.57 points to close at 5311.45 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, finished up 45.68 points, at 12594.03. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 5.46 points, to end at 2486.70. The S&P 500 was up 0.4%, or 5.49 points, to 1390.84. Crude oil finished up $2.18, or 1.7%, at $131.03 a barrel. The dollar was trading up today, with the Euro trading at $1.5615 and the dollar against the Yen was trading at 104.77 Yen. In the Fixed Income Market, Treasuries fell, The price of the 10-year note was down 24/32, yielding 4.015%.

What is a leader?

What is a leader? "Someone with internal and external strength. Someone who is great in a particular field, stands out from the rest and leads the way." A leader must have strong communication and interpersonal skills, and ability to work in a cross functional environment. A leader must be innovate, take challenges and never stop learning. George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Winston Churchill, and of course, Myself, all fit these descriptions. We all also possess other characteristics that are needed to succeed in life.
Continue reading an article on leadership at IBD.

To be a leader, one must also produce a better service, find a new "thing" that everyone must have or will want or by "doing or making an old thing in a better way".
A few companies, for example, who fit this description, is Apple (AAPL), General Electric (GE) and Goldman Sachs (GS).

Soaring oil prices and declining stocks

The Dow Jones ended down 227 points, falling 1.8% to 12601.19. All 30 of its components finished in the red. The two-day slide (yesterday being down nearly 200) was the Dow's worst in nearly three months. Crude oil futures surged to a fourth straight record, closing above $133 per barrel, as of the time of this post, futures for June delivery are $134+. The price being paid for Oil has increased 39% this year and is more than double its price of this time last year. The Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.8% (44 points), to 2448.27. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6%, or 22 points, to end at 1390.71. The S&P is down 5.3% on the year while the Dow is off 5%. In other trading, the dollar dropped .7%, And in the Bond Market, the benchmark 10-year note was off 8/32, yielding 3.810%.

Morning Recap, Stock Market taking a bath in Oil

With Crude Oil surging above $130 a barrel, the Dow Jones is down 80 points and the SPX and Nasdaq are both shedding points as we speak. Boeing is negative 3.7%, Lehman Brothers is currently in the red by more than 4%, which is the case with most of the Financials as well, with Citigroup and Morgan Stanley both down 2.6% and 2.7% respectively.
In the Bonds market and morning trading, The 10-year note is off 9/32, yielding 3.812%.
"The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback's value against a basket of six major foreign denominations, was off 0.6%, or 0.41 point, at 72.03."
How far will the Crude record run go? When will credit related worries stop plaguing Wall Street? Can this be the formation of a new problem stirring in the markets? Again I will ask the question, which is $200 first, a barrel of light sweet crude oil or an Apple IPhone?
Official as of 12:00pm, an all time record high for oil has been touched, $132.08 a barrel.

Times of instability and the aggressive Energy Industry

The legends of finance (according to Bloggingstocks, Carl Ichan, T. Boone Pickens and Steven Schwarzman) are confident in the long-term. They are making some big bets -- based on lots of experience and due diligence -- and not listening to the short-term noise. All in all, these are some valuable lessons for investors.
Follow this post for more information at bloggingstocks.com

Largest U.S. Oil Consumer looking for alternate fuels

With fuel prices soaring, the U.S. military, the country's largest single consumer of oil, is turning into an alternative-fuels pioneer.
"The U.S. military consumes 340,000 barrels of oil a day, or 1.5% of all of the oil used in the country. U.S. forces in Iraq alone consume 40,000 barrels of oil a day."
From WSJ.com

Data Rocks the Market

Wholesale prices excluding food and energy rose at the fastest pace in 16 years as oil prices neared $130 Tuesday, fueling concerns that inflation pressures will keep building even as the economy slows.

Core producer prices rose 0.4% in April, the Labor Department said. That was double forecasts. They climbed 3% vs. a year earlier, the most since December 1991.

Feature story from Investor's Business Daily. Continue reading here.

Stocks under pressure with Oil and Inflation data

The S&P 500 snapped a four-day winning streak, ending down 0.9%, or 13.21 points, at 1413.42, off 3.7% on the year. It was led Tuesday by a 2.5% slide in its financial sector. Shares of banks and brokerages came under pressure after a widely followed analyst said that the worst of the credit crisis may be yet to come and that firms would have to take more drastic measures to shore up their balance sheets against further losses.
Other commodities followed crude's lead higher. The broad Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index was up 1.2%, or 2.609 points, at 217.102.The VIX (Options Volatility Index), was also higher Tuesday, up 3.8%, or 0.62 point, at 17.63.
Read more at WSJ

"The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 11.2% from its early-March lows to May 2, but it's down 1.8% since, including a 1.5% slide today."

Morning Recap

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, as crude oil futures topping $129 fueled concerns that surging commodities prices will further crimp U.S. consumption, while an official signaled the central bank may be done with cutting interest rates to boost the economy.

"The number one concern in everyone's mind is higher oil prices," said Robert Pavlik, chief investment officer at Oaktree Asset Management. "Investors are questioning whether the rally we've had [over the past two months] is sustainable, with concerns about energy and remaining problems in the financial industry."

Oil surged to a new record of $129.46 a barrel, with bullish calls by investments banks, weakness in the dollar and supply concerns fueling the gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 195 points, or 1.5%, at 12,834, with 27 of its 30 components in the red. Leading blue-chip decliners were financial stocks American Express , AIG , Citigroup , and JP Morgan Chase .

Pressuring financial-related stocks, the vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve signaled the central bank has stopped cutting interest rates for now.

Chevron and Exxon Mobil were among the few rising stocks on the Dow.

The S&P 500 index fell 12 points, or 0.9%, to 1,413, with the consumer discretionary sector, off 1.9%, leading the drop, closely followed by financials, off 1.8%, and technology off 1.5%.

Hewlett-Packard , a blue-chip stock, fell 1% ahead of posting delayed results after the close.

"Techs are considered by many as consumer discretionary," said Oaktree's Pavlik.

The Nasdaq Composite lost 29 points, or 1.2%, to 2,486.

Before the market opened, inflation concerns were fueled by a report showing wholesale prices outside of food and energy rose the most in around 17 years. Core producer prices, which exclude food and energy, rose a higher-than-expected 0.4% in April, or 3% year-on-year -- the fastest rise since late 1991. See full story.

Highlighting woes about U.S. consumers and the economy, Home Depot said its profit dropped 66% and said the housing and home improvement markets remained difficult in the first quarter. "In fact, conditions worsened in many areas of the country," CEO Frank Blake said.-
Read more at Marketwatch.

Fed raises forecast for food prices

The government raised its one-month-old forecast of how much food prices will rise in 2008 by half a percentage point to a range of 4.5% to 5.5%.
WSJ

I will be constructing my new site, wsnewswire.com
It looks as if I will be going hungry for a while, if I want to invest in my new website, which we all know, is not cheap either!

ChartWatchers Newsletter from StockCharts.com

The VIX is designed to measure the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. As fear ramps up, the VIX normally rises indicating that volatility will be picking up as well. A rising VIX is synonomous with a falling equity market. A falling VIX is synonomous with a rising equity market. As the VIX falls too far, complacency becomes an issue. On the flip side, as the VIX skyrockets, fear is elevated and a panic bottom generally forms. When the VIX lost its rising trendline in late March/early April, it was further evidence that the market was going higher. Currently, the VIX has reached a support level. A bounce off of this support level would likely coincide with a drop in the stock market.
From StockCharts

Is it the Financial's weakness or the drop in Oil prices that will have potential to move the markets more this week..

OilandGas

In 2008, the global population will consume 135 million barrels of oil per day.
This demand is expected to increase by approximately 2% each year.
We must be devoted to sustain existing production, plus more.
MPM

A Trader's Dream

Big swings in currency values, "These are great markets -- they are fast-moving, trending markets," says Russell LaScala, head of currency trading at Deutsche Bank in New York. "It's a trader's dream." I see similar "waves of volatility" in the equities markets as well.

Oil, $126 a barrel and climbing

Crude oil for June delivery rallied to a record high of $126.20 a barrel this morning.
Another factor supporting very high oil prices is overall weakness in the U.S. dollar. The greenback fell against other major currencies, with the dollar index dropping 0.4% to 73.14. Oil does have the "momentum" to near $200 a barrel? 24/7 Wall Street reported this morning that OPEC will increase production. (24/7 Wall street link)
MPM

China's PPI for April climbs 8.1%

HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China's producer price index climbed 8.1% in April from a year earlier, marking the nineth straight month of gains, led by higher energy and industrial metals prices. A measure that captures gains in fuel, raw material and power climbed 11.8% in April from a year earlier. Among individual components, crude oil prices climbed 37.9%, coal rose 20.9%, ferrous metals were up 24.8% and gasoline climbed 10.8%

Economic Forcasting Survey from WSJ

The global surge in food and energy prices is being driven primarily by fundamental market conditions, rather than an investment bubble, say the majority of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal forecasting survey.
Fifty-one percent of the respondents said demand from China and India was the prime factor in soaring energy prices, and 41% said the demand was the chief contributor to rising food costs. Constraint in supply was cited second most often; 20% blamed supply problems for higher food prices, and 15% for increasing energy prices.
"It's a combination of demand and supply issues," said Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein LP.

-Friday's edition of The Wall Street Journal

Global inflation, a major threat to the world economy

According to John Lipsky, the IMF deputy managing director, “inflation concerns have resurfaced after years of quiescence” due to soaring energy and food prices. Mr Lipsky said global growth was slowing but headline inflation was “accelerating”.

Possibly a double bottom (with a higher low) put in by the Transports in a daily chart...Volume is not quite were I would like it to be on another thought.
The 200 bar moving average is currently resistance to the Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq, now THIS is making me think south..
If your trading June e-mini futures for the S&P 500 index, which is a very clear picture of the market, 1400-1430 is a very important level of resistance.
Who shall win this battle between the Bulls and the Bears?

Crude News,
On the NYMEX, June crude settled up 16 cents, or 0.13%, at $123.69 a barrel. It traded from $121.58 to $123.90 in regular floor-trading hours. It rose further in post-settlement trading to a record $124.57 (an all time high). Wednesday's high was $123.93.

If history was to repeat itself

In 1921, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at a mere 64 points. By the time 1929 came around, (within 8 years), the stock market index gained almost 600% to 381 points. Have you ever wondered, that if within 8 years, leading to the year 2016, the Dow Jones 30 added 600% from the January lows near 11640? This would give us the number of 69,800. History does have a "history" of repeating itself, and this is could very well happen...

What's next from here?

Today is my final undergraduate level final exam:

Class: Eco Capital Markets
Degree: Bachelors in Economics
Time: 3:30pm

Is Apple (AAPL) back on track to $200?

I have bolstered about this since $120 to my colleagues and as of late, particularly my brother and his friends, who have turned bullish long before I have, and now, it is time I spread the great word that myself and 24/7 Wall Street believes to be very true.
$200 is inevitable...thanks to the "portable and easy to use computer- IPhone"?

Some Insight..

It is playing on a team that makes the actual end result (win/loss) less important than the means (steps, interactions, circumstances, responses and situations) taking to get there. Of course, we all want to win, but that is not the point I am going to explain. A rational being has the ability to ask himself, am I playing this game to win, or am I trying to win as a mere act conceding from the urge to play?; and out of my competitiveness and will to be better than I was yesterday, it is inevitable that I want to win? Do I want to win because I am so involved with a team, that I simply want to be able to see and experience my teammates' happiness (that will reflect my happiness) as a result of a win. Or do I want to win because I cannot stand the thought of defeat and the repercussions of relationships that follow a loss.
Maybe I want to "lose" because I feel its time to rebuild or restructure something?
It is not when one relies more on himself and his independence, that the win/loss (end) is more important than the means (journey). This independence, self reliance and dictation is needed to be a leader and individual. Rather, it is when one does not trust others, or feels that he is better off than a "team" effort that a win/loss is taken much more seriously than the overall "game" of life.
This being said, overall, one must rely on his own instincts and intellect to commit to the furthering obtainment of experience, knowledge and execution. However, we must admit, without teams and confrontations with individuals, how do we find out who we truly are? This goes back to my thought that, when involved in a team, with the more people, development and planning involved, and the more tasks spread out, the "path taken" is more important than the "restaurant you eat at" and the "moderate amount you eat", is more important than "what you eat".
When applying this to life, be a unique individual, contribute to a team and trust yourself to be able to trust others. Find u r happiness out of your own free acts, which will add to surrounding happiness and better air for all to breathe. It may take a smile from you, to make me see a smile, or perhaps, smile myself. I may need to show you a frown, because I need a uplifted spirit. It is out of my curiosity that I see "what makes you smile", more important than your "smile". When my smile is all you see, do you wonder why? Do you wonder what it takes to make me happy? How about yourself?
Instead of telling others, "smile", I believe we should ask others, "what will it take to make you happy"
Compare to my example of a "game", when you read if our team won or loss. To most just watching (spectators), the win or loss (or outcome/result) is what matters. On the other hand, if you are the one that is actually playing....you can never lose, so a loss can't be a loss, as long as your involved and are able to make lasting impressions on others, that will leave a lasting impression on yourself, you win.

when you leave one place or overcome an obstacle or reach a milestone, do you treat it as an exit?

...or as an Entrance?

Now I ask myself, what's next.........

Foreclosures Rising

-Fannie Mae officials said they expect "severe weakness" in the housing market the rest of the year and warned of increased mortgage defaults and foreclosures.

Those warnings came a day after similar warnings from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. On Monday he told a group at Columbia University that conditions in mortgage markets "remain quite difficult" amid a steep rise in mortgage delinquencies.

Bernanke said about one-quarter of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages are either in foreclosure or are 90 days or more delinquent. Foreclosure proceedings were initiated on around 1.5 million U.S. homes last year, he said. That's up 53% from 2006.

"And the rate of foreclosure starts looks likely to be yet higher in 2008," he said.

Meanwhile, home prices continue to sag. Through February, U.S. home prices were down 14.8% from their July 2006 peak, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of 20 metro areas. Fannie Mae expects national home values to fall 7% to 9% this year.

Article from Investor’s Business Daily

Interesting News

Trading assets can be divided into three levels. From Minyanville, the Level 3 assets (which include real estate, mortgage-backed securities, private equity investments and much more) are the least liquid of the firms' trading assets and therefore are valued using what are called "unobservable inputs." The three magic words that make an asset a Level 3 asset are "no observable inputs." What this means is that not only are they hard to price, but nearly impossible to sell."
Ten companies now have more Level 3 assets than capital. In order they are (as a % of total shareholder equity):
1) Bear Stearns: 313.97% (for example, a bit more than 3x's their equity capital base)
2) Morgan Stanley: 234.88%
3) Merrill Lynch: 225.4%
4) Goldman Sachs: 191.56%
5) Lehman: 171.18%
6) Fannie Mae: 161.48%
7) Northwest Air: 142.02%
8) Citigroup: 125.06%
9) Prudential: 119.36%
10) Hartford: 108.52%

Recap

S&P 500: 1392.57 (-1.82%)
Transports: 5206.58 (-2.97%)
Dow Jones 30: 12810.77(-1.61%)
Nasdaq: 2438.39 (-1.80%)
CRB Index: 420.18 (+0.39%)
1o year yield: (3.850%)
Oil: $123.62/barrel..gain of nearly 10% in 4 trading sessions.

ESM8 (E-mini S&P 500 June 2008): 1395.00 (-25.75 points)

SPY: 139.49 (-1.80%)
QQQQ: 48.00 (-1.90%)
IWM: 71.46 (-1.92%)
AAPL: 182.62 (-2.16%)
POT: 198.05 (-0.33%)
FXE 154.15 (-0.68%)

How much oil is demanded in US per day?

That number lies between 19 and 20 million barrels. Many analysts also say that in order for prices to decline, are a sharp downturn in "global oil demand" or some other sudden flight from commodities among investors. While most signs point toward further increases of oil prices, The Wall Street Journal reports that if oil does head north near $150/barrel, that could mean $4.50 per gallon of gasoline.

While many can worry about the trembling affect of high oil prices, I am glad that my Money has been following smart money into Apple Inc. (AAPL) since $120 per share. News today, Apple is now adopting a more open strategy for selling it's IPhone, by allowing two carriers to offer the device in Italy. This may boost profits, while at the same time, the price of the IPhone could very well be coming down in the near future. (As the investor as I am, when the market tumbles, it tends to bring down some very good stocks with it, when this happens, at times, I see them on sale, and as an even better buy. As long as I know the business they are apart of and truly believe that they are worth what I am willing to pay for, this being said, if Apple Inc's stocks retraces back some, I will recognize this as a buying opportunity because of this companies underlying fundamentals and great news to follow). This leads me to the question, which is going to be cheaper next year, one barrel of oil or an IPhone? Which would you rather pay less than $200 dollars for...

June Oil

(Marketwatch) June crude traded as high as $123.35 a barrel in New York and $123.56 in electronic trading Wednesday -- both fresh record levels for crude futures. A U.S. government report said crude supplies rose a third week, but refinery activity declined. June crude was last up $1.16 at $123+.

'If economic news is good, it means demand is going to rise and if it's bad, it means the Fed could cut interest rates again and send oil higher.'

— Peter Beutel, CameronHanover

For 'June' Gold; Futures closed at $871.20 an ounce, down $6.50 for the session. "The contract saw pressure from strength in the U.S. dollar after having climbed nearly $27 during a three-session winning streak."

Bond prices edged lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note (which moves opposite its price) rose to 3.93 percent from 3.92 percent late Tuesday.

-MPM
when fresh news hits the wire, you can be sure to find it here, only if it's important.
Invest with discipline and trade with persistence, shall we take that extra mile?

Risks Associated With Investing In Bonds

Bonds may expose an investor to one or more of the following risks: (1) interest-rate risk, (2) reinvestment risk, (3) call risk, (4) credit risk, (5) inflation risk, (6) exchange rate risk, (7) liquidity risk, (8) volatility risk, and (9) risk risk.
When pricing a bond, it is necessary to estimate the expected cash flows and determine the appropriate yield at which to discount the expected cash flows.

Example of Present Value of an Ordinary Annuity Using Annual Interest

The present value is the future value process in reverse. We have:

PV = [1/(1+r)^n]

If A = $100, r = 0.09, and n = 8, then: PV=A[1-(1/(1-r)^n] ; 100[1-1/(1.09)^8]

=$100[1-(1/(1.99256)/(0.09)]; $100[1-0.501867/0.09]; $100(5.534811); = $553.48.

From CNN Money

The Energy Department predicts average monthly gasoline prices should peak at $3.73 a gallon in June, an increase of about 11 cents from last month's estimate. Regular-grade gasoline is expected to average $3.52 a gallon in 2008, 71 cents above last year's average.

Diesel fuel prices are projected to average $3.94 per gallon this year, up from $2.88 per gallon in 2007

CNN Money

Would you travel that extra mile?

As I write this, oil is ready to surpass the $122 level. Is this the price that must be paid, "oil"?
Chinese Oil consumption is up an astounding 16.5% in Quarter 1, while US GDP grew .6% in Quarter.
While Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Mexico will not be expanding oil production much further, Oil exporters’ internal oil demand will soon cause supplies of oil on the export market to begin falling. Costs to produce new off shore discoveries will continue to escalate. More demand for oil in Mideast hikes prices while their own domestic oil producers increasingly consume their own oil to fuel their fast growing economies, driving up oil prices. I have just laid some basic framework here for oil prices, consumption and supply, but their are many other factors and influences in Oil prices, feel free to add..
Would you travel the extra mile?

Oil Investor's Business

June crude rose $1.87 to $121.84 a barrel after soaring to $122.73. Strikes and political unrest continued in Nigeria, and Iran dismissed talk of nuke inspections. Higher energy price targets from the Energy Information Administration and a renewed "super-spike" forecast from Goldman Sachs also fueled gains. So did a weaker dollar.
-Investor's Business Daily

Invest with discipline, MPM.

Graham Corp (GHM )

Today's Price: $61.05 (+$5.91)
Volume 308,800
Avg. Daily Volume 101,300....+205% Today

UBS May Cut 8,000 Jobs

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG may cut as many as 8,000 jobs as it grapples with the biggest credit writedowns of any European bank and a 12 billion-franc ($11.4 billion) first-quarter loss.
Switzerland's biggest bank, which had a 3 billion-franc profit a year earlier, is set to spell out plans for layoffs when it reports detailed results tomorrow. The company will probably say it's eliminating between 2,500 and 3,000 jobs in its investment bank, more than 10 percent of the division, two people familiar with the matter said May 2 (Total 83,000 employees overall). Writedowns at the Zurich-based bank after the U.S. subprime mortgage meltdown have swelled to $38 billion over the past three quarters, a result of building a debt securities business at the peak of the market.
-MPM

Fidelity Magellan Fund

May 5 (Bloomberg) -- Fidelity Magellan Fund bought financial stocks including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp., leading to the $39.4 billion fund's biggest monthly gain in five years.

Manager Harry Lange upped his stake in banks and brokerage companies in March by 1.9 percentage points, about $750 million, to 10 percent of the fund, data compiled by Bloomberg show. He bought $408 million in JPMorgan and $190 million in Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America.

Financial stocks reversed six months of declines in April that were caused by the subprime-mortgage crisis. The S&P's 500 Financials Index gained 6.5 percent, including reinvested dividends after dropping 28 percent in the prior 12 months. Magellan, once the largest U.S. fund, matched the index and had its biggest monthly gain since April 2003.

"He's calling the bottom in financials,'' said Jim Lowell, chief strategist at Adviser Investment Management Inc. in Watertown, Massachusetts, whose clients buy Fidelity funds. He's aggressively buying for the first time in a decade.''

Sunday Oil Investor's Business

From IBD,
"One of the glories of a capitalist system is that price signals are allowed to work. When the price for a good rises, that means it's in scarce supply. When the price falls, it's relatively abundant. This signals to users and producers they must change their behavior."

For consumers, higher prices mean finding alternate ways to do with less. For producers, they mean finding ways to produce more. The confluence of these two forces usually results in lower prices to meet equilibrium.

"This is what's happening now with oil." As for oil companies, they're drilling more, "world oil output has jumped by 11%, or 8.5 million barrels a day, since 2002, to 83 million barrels a day."

"Fueled by the high prices, new sources of oil are being discovered. They include the 33-billion-barrel bonanza recently found off Brazil's coast and other huge finds in the Caribbean and Asia.

The U.S. itself has 656 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 112 billion barrels of oil on federal lands alone — there for the taking if only Congress would allow it.

As the American Petroleum Institute recently noted, "an estimated 4,577 (U.S.) oil wells were completed in the first quarter of 2008, up 12%" from last year and the highest rate since 1986. U.S. oil companies are going back to tapped-out wells and pumping oil that wasn't economically recoverable at $25 a barrel but is at $100."

-Monday's Edition of Investor's Business Daily, Editorials and Opinions.

MPM

Ideas to think about

Wall Street annually says, Sell in May and Go Away? Research published by Yale Hirsch in the "Trader's Almanac" shows that the market year is broken into two different six-month seasonality periods. From May 1 through October 31 is seasonally unfavorable (Spring to Fall).
However, November 1 through April 30 is seasonally favorable, and the market most often finishes the period higher. (Fall to Spring). Regardless of how the market performs on average, every year is different, and every day is a different day. Does it pay not to become to complacement as of late? Will the selling button be hit, when will the market's next unfavorable season begin?
Looking at a few ETF's, Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Finance (XLF) and Technology (XLK). XLY broke above resistance from its February highs. XLF broke above resistance from the March-April highs. XLK broke above resistance from a five day consolidation. While, these resistance breaks show strength, we should also keep in mind that all three are up substantially since mid April and getting short-term overbought.
QQQQ, SPY and IWM "shook off the post-Fed" decline and rallied to new reaction highs on Friday. Another higher high keeps the short-term uptrend alive! Shall we raise their resistances? For the Bulls, The U.S. Dollar Index surged above 73 last week.

MPM

Weekend Edition of Oil Investor's Business

"if you're really curious about something, you probably can figure out a good way to test it; try to attain accurate beliefs first and then let your emotions flow from that"

Since March 2003, Shell has risen 71% and BP 63.5%, Analysts estimate that underlying operating costs and capital expenditure across the oil industry are increasing 10 to 20 per cent a year. "BP and Shell trade on prospective price/earnings multiples of just over nine and BP’s prospective dividend yield is 4.5 per cent. Also upgrades could be in the pipeline if analysts start to base forecasts on $100 oil."
-Over the same period the price of US light sweet crude has risen from $30 a barrel to a all time high of $119.93 last month.
Do many see an Increase in Camel Demand? Increase in camel prices? Increase in camel feed and ultimately, what will the camel run on? Long term investments in the camel?
Farmers in the Indian state of Rajasthan are rediscovering the humble camel. Market prices for these “ships of the desert”, which crashed with the growing affordability of motorised transport, are rising again as oil prices soar. “It’s excellent for the camel population if the price of oil continues to go up because demand for camels will also go up,” says Ilse Köhler-Rollefson of the League for Pastoral Peoples and Endogenous Livestock Development. “Two years ago, a camel cost little more than a goat, which is nothing. The price has since trebled. A sturdy male with a life expectancy of 60-80 years now fetches up to Rs40,000 ($973), compared to Rs5,000-Rs10,000 three years ago, according to Hanuwant Singh of the Lokhit Pashu-Palak Sansthan, a non-profit welfare organisation for livestock keepers. Entry-level tractors cost around $4,000.
"Animal-lovers hope that the surge in oil prices will enhance the status of camel-breeders, who resent the lack of respect society has accorded their traditional knowledge, and give the Raika a strong incentive to stop selling female camels for slaughter." The Financial Times

What is your take, has the world has exhausted about half of all crude supplies?

MPM
-Learn something new everyday.

Graham Corporation (GHM)

This morning, Graham Corp (Batavia, NY) announced fourth quarter year-over-year orders increased 32%; $35 millon. Total for year 2008 orders were $107 million. From Investor's Business Daily and James R. Lines, Graham's President and Chief Executive Officer, commented, "We had exceptionally strong bookings in the fourth quarter. There was excellent diversity in geography and markets for the large projects booked in the fourth quarter. Significant orders were received from Saudi Arabia, China, Canada and the United States and are for projects ranging from oil refineries, oil sands and petrochemical plants to alternative fuels operations and power generation facilities. We continue to be optimistic about the outlook for the markets and industries that we serve and the long-term strength of our bookings pipeline."Fiscal 2008 revenue is expected to be in the $85 to $86 million range, slightly higher than the upper end of the previously announced $80 to $85 million range. Gross margin is anticipated to be in the high-30% range for fiscal 2008.

From the Press Release; About Graham
With world-renowned engineering expertise in vacuum and heat transfer technology, Graham Corporation is a designer, manufacturer and global supplier of ejectors, pumps, condensers, vacuum systems and heat exchangers. For over 70 years, Graham has built a reputation for top quality, reliable products and high-standards of customer service. The principal markets for Graham's equipment, sold either as components or complete system solutions, are the petrochemical, oil refining and electric power generation industries, including cogeneration and geothermal plants. Graham equipment can also be found in diverse applications, such as metal refining, pulp and paper processing, ship-building, water heating, refrigeration, desalination, food processing, pharmaceuticals, heating, ventilating and air conditioning.
Graham's reach spans the globe. Its equipment is installed in facilities from North and South America to Europe, Asia, Africa and the Middle East. More information regarding Graham can be found at its website: www.,graham-mfg.com

For Friday, Oil settled up $3.80 to $116.32/barrel.

Jobless rates dropped to 5.0%, down 0.1 from 5.1%, (March's 2 1/2 year high).

MPM

Afternoon Buzz

From Marketwatch
"On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude-oil futures fell $2.13 to $111.33 a barrel.

Advancing sectors on the S&P included financials, up 3.3%, and consumer discretionary, which climbed 3.2%. Declining sectors on the S&P had energy falling 2.6% and materials down 0.6%."
As I depart from school at 2:30 pm on this May 1st for a few days vacation, the Dow Transports are in the green by 178 points, Dow Jones is positive by 186, S&P is green by 21 points (key is it broke through 1405), and the Nasdaq Composite(tech heavy index) is up 60 points. The yield (3.763) on the 10 years Note is green today, following money into "thee stocks". Good day for the Equity Bulls, Good day for the Bears in the Energy market and good day for all to be alive. I need to go to the gas station right now and I by no means am looking forward to that.

If your taking a break from the markets today, here is a good story from the NY Times.

MPM

Gear Maker Graham Corp (GHM)

check it out, Investor's Business Daily likes it.

It's May already? What happens to crude? What will become of the green back?
When will the market break through the blustering resistance of S&P 1405?
MPM

Oil Investor's Business May 1st

Marathon Oil's first-quarter net income increased 2% to $731 million which exceeded analysts' views.
Exxon Mobil came out with earnings this morning, their earnings announcement said profits rose to $10.89 billion, or $2.03 a share (thats 17% increase), with great help from oil being over $100 a barrel for the better part of this first quarter of 2008.
from Marketwatch, "Exxon remains the largest corporation in the world by market cap and yearly profit." As of late, ConocoPhillips earnings rose 17%; Royal Dutch Shell rose about 25% and BP's profit climbed more than 60%..

Morning data from unemployment report:
U.S. initial jobless claims surge 35,000 to 380,000, a 4 year high.

As I depart to go read the wall street journal before I take on the challenge of this final, I will succeed, but I leave you with some market information:
Crude is $113.10 and Gold is near $860 per troy ounce; major indexes are flat, while the Transports are up 5 and bonds are green (yields, which are inversely related to prices, are red), CRB (commodities) Index and the dollar are both down this morning.
MPM

Good statement.

everyonce in a while, go back to this.
short term, for entire market, we need to break 1405 level on the S&P 500 Index.


For now, here is something very interesting for short term bearish outlook.
“Amazing. After the FOMC announcement the Dow moved higher by 170 points and then sold off. Oddly enough, there were no real surprises. The word from the floor was that traders wanted a stronger statement on inflation such as saying that they will not ease for a while. I'm not sure if I buy that. The market normally doesn't like a restrictive Fed. Actually, it almost never wants a restrictive Fed. I think the rally failure was a function of the short term overbought condition and the resistance just above current levels. Also, when the market rallies into a Fed meeting, it normally moves down for a few days afterward regardless of what the Fed action is.”
Statement from Todd Market Forecast.

MPM